A refined NHL defense breakout model now targets blueliners likely to deliver true fantasy impact beyond sporadic scoring, focusing on age, experience, and a first sustained FPPG above a historical median. It flags defenders entering a true breakout window (roughly 23–27 years old, 170–380 games) who can push into top unit minutes and PP time, while accumulating hits and blocks that translate to fantasy points.

Among the names highlighted: Bowen Byram, Jamie Drysdale, Dylan Samberg, and K’Andre Miller, plus others who could unlock a real late-round upside if opportunity aligns. The framework aims to separate true contributors from depth players, guiding drafts with data-backed confidence.

Duclair’s health and role with the Islanders take center stage as Roy and Duclair mend fences after a sharp late-season critique. A groin injury that sidelined him for two months reshaped his 2023-24 start, and Roy now expects him to reclaim pre-injury form. With a likely third-line role behind Pageau and Holmström and a four-year, $14M contract in hand, Duclair’s fantasy upside hinges on health and early-season deployment.

Last season’s 24-goal output with San Jose and Tampa Bay sets a high-water mark, but success for the Isles will require a clean bill of health and a quick lens into his role on opening night. If Duclair looks himself again, the Isles gain a versatile winger who can contribute across lines and power play, potentially shifting the balance of their depth-chart at the start of the season.